Saturday, May 16, 2009

India Election Results

At the time when I am writing this; counting is going on for Indian parliament elections. Trends have come out for 80% of seats. The big stories that’s coming up are,

a) UPA is coming back. Dr. Manmohan Singh would hold on to PM’s post.
b) NDA will come distant second
c) Communists are almost out of picture in Indian politics
d) Maya’s dalit vote bank finally came to senses
e) End of Lalu’s era
f) Regional politics still a factor in the south
e) Third front as expected came out as a joke.

In my opinion these are the 5 reasons for these results:

1. Man Mohan factor: The 1 factor that has worked across the country above any region, cast, religion, language etc is the credibility of Dr. Man Mohan Singh. His sincerity, intellect and hard work are unparalleled and un-common among Indian politicians. This is one big differentiating factor.

2. Message crisis in BJP: Through out the campaign BJP or NDA did not have a single big consistent message.
  • They took a risk of attacking Dr. Singh and it didn’t work.
  • They talked about UPA being soft on terror but no other solution is provided except POTA which is too small for a huge problem we’re talking about.
  • They talked about inflation and economic issues but again how NDA will be different (and has been different) is big question. No solution again

3. Politics of Allies: Strategically UPA made better decisions in terms of
Whether to go with allies or not
Which ally to choose where
Sonia and Rahul should be given credit for this.

4. Leadership crisis in BJP: However Mr. Advani was projected as PM candidate but the way he projected himself and the line BJP has taken that a strong statements will place him like a messiah. Well the news is Indians can not be fooled like a herd of uneducated people who can be collected in large rallies to see their Neta. Though they have rightly projected Modi as a star campaigner but Advani-Modi-? There should have been one more leader who can play an inclusive part. Advani-Modi duo shows a more polarized picture.

5. Relative good governance: It is always difficult to judge in absolute terms that last 5 years are the years of good governance or not. However the fact is that govt has invested billions of dollars in many pockets of the country. Be it loan waiver scheme or metro or national highway scheme. Pockets of people are benefited due to govt policies and you mix it with credibility of Dr. Singh; it’s a formula to win the psyche of the people.

Now, is there any pattern emerging here? The single largest factor that’s emerging in current India is that “Indian voter is becoming more and more intelligent with each election”. Our democracy is getting matured. Consider these examples,
Whom do we chose between soft-spoken Singh and iron-man Advani?
We are throwing out age old communists.
Nitish’s great governance wipes out lalu
Maya’s Dalit voters finally betray her based on her performance
Any hard polarization factor on any account did not work.

So I congratulate India for getting a stable government without any large ideological differences in its partners. I hope now they can move forward with reforms without much hindrance.